MODEL VERDICT
CVR Partners, LP (UAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $128.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $131.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $122.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $124.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $117.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $131.63 | +2.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $175.43 | +37.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $180.18 | +40.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $109.81 | -14.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $180.09 | +40.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $41.87 | -67.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $72.38 | -43.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $174.56 | +36.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $176.26 | +37.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $156.81 | +22.5% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $97 | $116 | $136 | $155 | $175 |
| Conservative (7%) | $99 | $119 | $139 | $159 | $179 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $103 | $123 | $144 | $164 | $185 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $106 | $127 | $148 | $169 | $191 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.64 | 10.99 | 3.72 | 13.19 | 4.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.64 | 11.18 | 4.79 | 34.36 | 10.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.24 | 7.34 | 3.82 | 19.14 | 5.13 |
| P/FCF | 29.25 | 7.08 | 3.16 | 157.04 | 56.56 |
| P/FFO | 5.11 | 5.61 | 2.75 | 7.83 | 1.96 |
| P/TBV | 2.25 | 2.58 | 0.57 | 4.08 | 1.18 |
| P/AFFO | 7.00 | 6.96 | 3.04 | 13.40 | 3.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.24 | 2.58 | 0.57 | 4.08 | 1.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.41 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.28 | 0.51 | 1.79 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates UAN's fair value at $156.81 vs the current price of $128.00, implying +22.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $156.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $111.34 (P10) to $216.62 (P90), with a median of $151.55.
UAN's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -27.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.6x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
6 analysts cover UAN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UAN trades at the 1250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UAN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (18.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3820.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.