United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP)
Valuation Overview•Is United Bancorp, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
UBCP demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 15.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.4M | +8.0% | — | — | +9.1% | |
| EBITDA | $2.2M | — | -4.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.9M | +4.7% | -3.6% | — | +9.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.33 | +5.5% | -3.9% | -0.6% | +7.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.7M | -46.2% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 67.5% | 69.1% | 79.1% | 81.7% |
| Operating Margin | 15.8% | 19.1% | 24.5% | 24.3% |
| Net Margin | 16.3% | 18.3% | 22.7% | 21.0% |
| FCF Margin | 10.3% | 4.6% | 12.7% | 15.4% |
Total return is +19.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -1.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +15.5% | +8.2% | — |
| 1Y | +19.3% | -1.5% | +6.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +16.4% | -3.6% | +22.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +6.8% | -5.1% | +29.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +8.8% | -5.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, United Bancorp, Inc. appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
United Bancorp, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $17.24. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
United Bancorp, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.1%.
United Bancorp, Inc. pays a 5.9% dividend yield, covered by a 71% payout ratio with 6 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.3% buyback yield.
United Bancorp, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.0% 1Y revenue growth and +5.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for United Bancorp, Inc. include: -16.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.19x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.