MODEL VERDICT
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $75.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $73.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $69.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $73.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $85.44 | Pending | -13.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $68.41 | -9.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $64.86 | -14.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $124.03 | +64.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $90.64 | +20.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $69.02 | -8.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $89.16 | +18.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $88.88 | +17.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $82.86 | +9.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $137.56 | +82.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $91.28 | +21.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.85 | +41.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $59 | $69 | $78 | $88 | $98 |
| Conservative (7%) | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $100 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $62 | $73 | $83 | $93 | $104 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $64 | $75 | $86 | $96 | $107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.78 | 17.35 | 13.23 | 70.77 | 32.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.17 | 28.98 | 21.78 | 45.75 | 12.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.77 | 38.10 | 26.29 | 69.91 | 22.56 |
| P/FCF | 49.99 | 28.56 | 17.63 | 125.23 | 51.05 |
| P/FFO | 67.79 | 31.73 | 12.25 | 195.45 | 86.57 |
| P/TBV | 15.91 | 12.23 | 2.48 | 41.47 | 13.54 |
| P/AFFO | 203.88 | 34.12 | 12.53 | 734.76 | 354.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.99 | 5.77 | 2.45 | 10.16 | 2.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.81 | 3.31 | 1.53 | 8.03 | 2.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates UBER's fair value at $106.85 vs the current price of $75.42, implying +41.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.39 (P10) to $135.31 (P90), with a median of $106.87.
UBER's current P/E of 16.0x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -39.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.8x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
61 analysts cover UBER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $105.04 (range: $72.00 — $125.00), implying +39.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (49), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UBER.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.