Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$75.42
→
Intrinsic$180.51
+139%
$121.72$180.51$297.30
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UBER could have 139% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $75, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $122 → Bull $297. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $228 | $246 | $266 | $286 |
| 10% | $156 | $168 | $181 | $194 |
| 12% | $117 | $126 | $136 | $146 |
| 14% | $94 | $101 | $108 | $116 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($297) offers 294% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($122) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$12.20B
Year 2$15.25B
Year 3$19.07B
Year 4$23.84B
Year 5$29.79B
Terminal$472.13B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$9.76BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.