MODEL VERDICT
UDR, Inc. (UDR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $36.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $35.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $35.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $40.65 | +11.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $47.38 | +30.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $31.16 | -14.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $41.53 | +14.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $27.83 | -23.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $28.76 | -21.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $25.70 | -29.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $32.98 | -9.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $38.52 | +5.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.12 | +24.0% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 |
| Conservative (27%) | $37 | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Base Case (41.4%) | $42 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
| Bull Case (56%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $62 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.74 | 124.98 | 28.57 | 192.15 | 65.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.10 | 60.19 | 28.26 | 71.06 | 14.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.47 | 19.53 | 14.01 | 26.70 | 4.27 |
| P/FCF | 25.96 | 24.22 | 19.78 | 36.38 | 5.65 |
| P/FFO | 16.64 | 16.60 | 11.09 | 23.51 | 4.36 |
| P/TBV | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.53 | 3.79 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 23.02 | 23.56 | 15.30 | 30.00 | 5.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.53 | 3.79 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.48 | 8.57 | 7.09 | 14.02 | 2.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates UDR's fair value at $45.12 vs the current price of $36.39, implying +24.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.15 (P10) to $48.24 (P90), with a median of $44.09.
UDR's current P/E of 32.2x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +26.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 109.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
38 analysts cover UDR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.25 (range: $35.00 — $44.00), implying +10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.5% is 15.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (13.0%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$57. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UDR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5570.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.