MODEL VERDICT
Urban Edge Properties (UE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $21.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $21.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $22.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $21.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $20.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $24.20 | +10.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $28.18 | +29.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $19.14 | -12.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $20.90 | -4.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $20.58 | -5.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $18.51 | -15.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $27.43 | +25.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $25.16 | +15.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.28 | +2.0% | 100% | 85 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Base Case (-1.3%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.66 | 21.59 | 8.67 | 36.13 | 9.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.17 | 22.62 | 10.89 | 30.97 | 6.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.86 | 16.42 | 15.19 | 18.92 | 1.20 |
| P/FCF | 32.49 | 18.10 | 13.20 | 72.70 | 24.00 |
| P/FFO | 10.16 | 11.29 | 6.02 | 11.85 | 2.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.01 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.38 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 28.28 | 21.81 | 9.47 | 60.01 | 21.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.87 | 1.76 | 1.53 | 2.27 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.21 | 5.16 | 4.31 | 5.93 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates UE's fair value at $22.28 vs the current price of $21.85, implying +2.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.99 (P10) to $24.29 (P90), with a median of $22.59.
UE's current P/E of 29.5x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +6.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover UE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $20.00 — $22.00), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UE trades at the 4620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 400.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.