MODEL VERDICT
UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $85.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $95.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $93.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $95.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $117.10 | +37.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $120.40 | +41.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $110.13 | +29.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $212.98 | +150.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $123.45 | +44.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $240.17 | +182.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $90.98 | +6.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $204.82 | +140.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $172.09 | +102.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $110.12 | +29.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $182.72 | +114.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $151.50 | +77.9% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $76 | $87 | $97 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $79 | $89 | $100 | $110 |
| Base Case (4.6%) | $68 | $78 | $89 | $99 | $110 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $69 | $80 | $90 | $101 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.09 | 15.56 | 7.22 | 18.21 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.42 | 10.06 | 4.89 | 11.80 | 2.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.89 | 8.84 | 4.36 | 9.44 | 1.79 |
| P/FCF | 13.19 | 13.46 | 7.31 | 19.42 | 4.17 |
| P/FFO | 10.30 | 11.64 | 5.96 | 11.79 | 2.22 |
| P/TBV | 2.73 | 2.89 | 2.07 | 3.50 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 16.65 | 16.34 | 7.60 | 28.79 | 6.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.20 | 2.24 | 1.74 | 2.75 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 1.05 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UFPI's fair value at $151.50 vs the current price of $85.18, implying +77.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $151.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $100.35 (P10) to $166.74 (P90), with a median of $130.37.
UFPI's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
8 analysts cover UFPI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $103.00 (range: $98.00 — $108.00), implying +20.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UFPI trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UFPI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4070.0% to approximately $120. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.