MODEL VERDICT
UGI Corporation (UGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $35.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $37.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $77.08 | +117.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $65.19 | +84.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $42.80 | +20.9% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $59.73 | +68.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $24.32 | -31.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $64.34 | +81.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $24.19 | -31.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $109.67 | +209.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $77.07 | +117.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.63 | +48.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $28 | $35 | $41 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $29 | $36 | $42 | $49 |
| Base Case (4.1%) | $23 | $29 | $35 | $42 | $48 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $23 | $29 | $36 | $42 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.77 | 12.97 | 6.63 | 32.03 | 9.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.60 | 13.80 | 6.90 | 21.92 | 5.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.00 | 9.51 | 7.55 | 15.11 | 2.60 |
| P/FCF | 23.69 | 21.03 | 15.74 | 38.81 | 9.48 |
| P/FFO | 7.14 | 6.92 | 4.95 | 11.62 | 2.44 |
| P/TBV | 5.72 | 5.57 | 4.08 | 8.27 | 1.55 |
| P/AFFO | 63.10 | 20.32 | 10.17 | 253.21 | 106.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.61 | 1.71 | 1.17 | 2.14 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 1.12 | 0.58 | 1.30 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates UGI's fair value at $52.63 vs the current price of $35.40, implying +48.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.04 (P10) to $62.78 (P90), with a median of $56.25.
UGI's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 24.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -54.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover UGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $40.00 — $44.00), implying +18.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 840.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.