MODEL VERDICT
U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $51.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $52.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $52.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $51.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $51.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $11.18 | -78.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $86.04 | +66.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $49.37 | -4.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $70.61 | +36.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $285.59 | +453.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $192.18 | +272.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $49.20 | -4.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.48 | +32.7% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $50 | $53 | $57 | $60 |
| Conservative (5%) | $48 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $62 |
| Base Case (-40.4%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (-55%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.82 | 2.33 | 1.05 | 29.83 | 11.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.87 | 18.47 | 9.94 | 26.57 | 5.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.77 | 9.50 | 7.67 | 11.81 | 1.55 |
| P/FFO | 8.42 | 8.05 | 6.48 | 11.17 | 1.51 |
| P/TBV | 2.06 | 1.99 | 1.32 | 2.93 | 0.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 1.99 | 1.32 | 2.93 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.27 | 2.24 | 1.70 | 3.14 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates UHAL's fair value at $68.48 vs the current price of $51.60, implying +32.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.96 (P10) to $65.79 (P90), with a median of $57.13.
UHAL's current P/E of 30.5x compares to the industry median of 29.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +4.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover UHAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $80.00 — $80.00), implying +55.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UHAL trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UHAL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19800.0% to approximately $154. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.