MODEL VERDICT
UL Solutions Inc. (ULS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $91.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $90.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $91.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $90.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $84.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $47.90 | -47.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $83.47 | -8.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $49.56 | -45.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $81.38 | -11.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $34.77 | -62.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $86.07 | -6.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $69.87 | -23.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $50.46 | -44.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.85 | -29.2% | 100% | 49 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $77 | $85 | $94 | $102 | $110 |
| Conservative (5%) | $79 | $87 | $96 | $104 | $113 |
| Base Case (6.6%) | $80 | $89 | $97 | $106 | $114 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $82 | $91 | $99 | $108 | $117 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ULS's fair value at $64.85 vs the current price of $91.60, implying -29.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.00 (P10) to $75.81 (P90), with a median of $64.86.
ULS's current P/E of 57.3x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +84.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover ULS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.40 (range: $79.00 — $96.00), implying -2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.3% is 2.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (14.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$120. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ULS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3110.0% to approximately $120. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.