Intrinsic Value Overview
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) intrinsic value summary: current price $684.79, fair value $518.83, -24% implied move via DCF and relative valuation.
Method Breakdown
Base blend: 60% DCF + 40% RelativeCompany Quality
Above average — solid fundamentals with minor weakness
Wall St Estimates
Shareholder Returns
Returns capital via buybacks — no dividend
Total Return vs S&P 500
Fundamental Analysis
Profitability & Financial HealthProfitability
Returns & MarginsSolvency
Financial HealthGrowth & Margins
Quarterly Trends · 5-Year Window · Hover for detailPiotroski F-Score
Fundamental QualityMonte Carlo Distribution & Risk
10,000 SimulationsModel Observation History
Quantitative Track RecordMonthly model snapshots showing quantitative assessments. High Conviction = model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Return columns show actual price changes following each observation date for reference purposes only.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 26Latest | Neutral | 0.22 | $684.79 | — | — |
| Feb 21, 26 | Neutral | 0.22 | $682.89 | — | — |
| Feb 14, 26 | Neutral | 0.22 | $683.40 | — | — |
| Feb 11, 26 | Neutral | 0.22 | $679.28 | — | — |
| Jan 11, 26 | Neutral | 0.23 | $666.18 | +4.5% | — |
Earnings Surprise History
Last 12 Quarters| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | $4.61 | $5.14 | +11.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $5.10 | $5.78 | +13.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $5.81 | $6.70 | +15.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $7.13 | $8.46 | +18.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $4.53 | $5.14 | +13.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $5.46 | $5.30 | -2.9% | ||
| Q2'24 | $6.24 | $6.47 | +3.7% | ||
| Q1'24 | $7.53 | $8.08 | +7.3% |
Peer Valuation Comparison
Specialty Retail CohortAnnual Returns vs SPY
Total Return (Price + Dividends)| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +10.4% | +0.4% | +10.0% |
| 2025 | +41.0% | +16.6% | +24.3% |
| 2024 | -10.6% | +24.0% | -34.6% |
| 2023 | +3.9% | +24.8% | -20.9% |
| 2022 | +13.5% | -19.9% | +33.5% |
| 2021Best | +46.0% | +28.8% | +17.2% |
| 2020 | +12.8% | +15.1% | -2.3% |
| 2019 | +2.1% | +28.7% | -26.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs ULTA a good stock to buy right now?
Based on our multi-model analysis of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) at $684.79: DCF model flags -26.0% downside from intrinsic value of $480.89. Relative valuation verdict: Overvalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 67/100 (moderate). Wall Street consensus: Buy from 47 analysts. This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
ValuationWhat is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s fair value?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: DCF intrinsic value: $480.89 (overvalued, -26.0% implied move). Relative fair value: $575.73 (Overvalued, -15.9% vs current price). Analyst consensus target: $693.73 (+1.3% upside, 47 analysts). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
QualityIs ULTA financially healthy?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 67/100. Piotroski F-Score: 5/9 (moderate). Altman Z-Score: 8.4 (safe zone — low bankruptcy risk). Return on invested capital: 33.2%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): 1.11x (earnings are cash-backed). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
PerformanceHow has ULTA performed compared to the S&P 500?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s performance profile: 1-year total return: +86.9%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: +71.5% (outperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: +15.2%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -14.2%. Relative Strength rating: 80/99 (strong momentum). Beta: 0.90 (similar volatility to the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
IncomeDoes ULTA pay dividends?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend. The company returns capital to shareholders via share buybacks, with a buyback yield of 3.3% and a 1-year share count change of -4.4%. Total shareholder yield (including buybacks): 3.3%.
EstimatesWhat do Wall Street analysts say about ULTA?
Wall Street's outlook on Ulta Beauty, Inc.: Consensus rating: Buy from 47 covering analysts. Consensus price target: $693.73 (range: $425.00 to $790.00). Implied upside from current price: +1.3%. Earnings beat rate: 92% with a 5-quarter consecutive beat streak. Forward P/E: 26.7x. Analyst estimates are blended into our proprietary model with weight based on coverage depth and historical accuracy. We track estimate revisions, beat rates, and grade changes daily.
RiskWhat are the key risks of investing in ULTA?
Key risks identified for Ulta Beauty, Inc.: Cyclicality risk: The stock shows cyclical earnings behavior (severity: medium, currently at Mid-Cycle of the cycle). Valuation risk: Both DCF and relative models flag overvaluation — the stock may have limited upside or elevated downside. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
LegalDoes this dashboard provide investment advice?
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.