MODEL VERDICT
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $684.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $682.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $683.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $679.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $666.18 | Below threshold | +4.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $543.83 | -20.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $494.48 | -27.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $742.18 | +8.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $468.99 | -31.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $548.93 | -19.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $428.95 | -37.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $274.21 | -60.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $371.07 | -45.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $312.43 | -54.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $742.17 | +8.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $470.49 | -31.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $575.73 | -15.9% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $620 | $674 | $728 | $781 | $835 |
| Conservative (10%) | $643 | $699 | $755 | $811 | $866 |
| Base Case (15.8%) | $675 | $734 | $792 | $851 | $910 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $708 | $769 | $831 | $892 | $954 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.57 | 20.83 | 17.16 | 92.33 | 27.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.23 | 16.67 | 13.82 | 72.17 | 21.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.43 | 13.37 | 11.83 | 27.95 | 5.66 |
| P/FCF | 22.44 | 23.14 | 18.32 | 25.49 | 2.47 |
| P/FFO | 18.42 | 15.83 | 14.04 | 34.29 | 7.11 |
| P/TBV | 10.07 | 8.32 | 7.79 | 14.85 | 2.72 |
| P/AFFO | 25.40 | 20.92 | 18.85 | 50.48 | 11.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.00 | 8.29 | 7.73 | 14.73 | 2.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.26 | 2.19 | 1.83 | 2.64 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ULTA's fair value at $575.73 vs the current price of $684.79, implying -15.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $575.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $468.60 (P10) to $671.53 (P90), with a median of $567.47.
ULTA's current P/E of 27.0x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -7.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
47 analysts cover ULTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $693.73 (range: $425.00 — $790.00), implying +1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ULTA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3970.0% to approximately $957. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.