MODEL VERDICT
Unity Bancorp, Inc. (UNTY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $56.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $55.17 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $55.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $54.58 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $52.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $84.35 | +48.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $40.26 | -28.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $47.11 | -16.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $18.84 | -66.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $86.15 | +52.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $59.96 | +5.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.10 | -0.9% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $37 | $49 | $61 | $74 | $86 |
| Conservative (14%) | $39 | $52 | $64 | $77 | $90 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $41 | $55 | $69 | $82 | $96 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $44 | $58 | $73 | $87 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.77 | 8.01 | 7.61 | 10.74 | 1.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.74 | 9.11 | 1.82 | 17.19 | 4.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.31 | 8.69 | 1.76 | 16.32 | 4.40 |
| P/FCF | 8.62 | 8.72 | 6.66 | 11.92 | 1.76 |
| P/FFO | 8.26 | 7.43 | 7.10 | 10.10 | 1.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.10 | 1.56 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 8.45 | 7.59 | 7.36 | 10.27 | 1.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.09 | 1.55 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.60 | 2.73 | 2.03 | 2.96 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates UNTY's fair value at $56.10 vs the current price of $56.63, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.72 (P10) to $58.96 (P90), with a median of $54.68.
UNTY's current P/E of 10.0x compares to the industry median of 14.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -32.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover UNTY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $66.50 (range: $65.00 — $68.00), implying +17.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UNTY trades at the 1080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UNTY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 650.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.