MODEL VERDICT
United Rentals, Inc. (URI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $949.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $974.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $796.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $765.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $771.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $932.43 | -1.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $1010.74 | +6.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $879.40 | -7.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $147.22 | -84.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $866.85 | -8.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $2356.43 | +148.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $621.33 | -34.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $598.80 | -36.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $874.91 | -7.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $140.72 | -85.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $822.51 | -13.4% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $895 | $980 | $1065 | $1151 | $1236 |
| Conservative (17%) | $947 | $1038 | $1128 | $1218 | $1308 |
| Base Case (25.9%) | $1021 | $1118 | $1215 | $1312 | $1410 |
| Bull Case (35%) | $1095 | $1199 | $1303 | $1407 | $1512 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.42 | 17.46 | 11.04 | 20.96 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.09 | 15.00 | 11.50 | 16.85 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.75 | 7.79 | 5.95 | 9.64 | 1.24 |
| P/FCF | 52.40 | 49.28 | 11.28 | 111.92 | 35.32 |
| P/FFO | 6.93 | 7.21 | 4.03 | 9.33 | 1.80 |
| P/TBV | 37.88 | 40.65 | 25.92 | 44.28 | 8.41 |
| P/AFFO | 48.17 | 34.71 | 10.04 | 154.12 | 48.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.40 | 4.04 | 3.38 | 5.83 | 0.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.44 | 2.49 | 1.39 | 3.25 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates URI's fair value at $822.51 vs the current price of $949.23, implying -13.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $822.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $603.58 (P10) to $733.50 (P90), with a median of $667.47.
URI's current P/E of 24.6x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +7.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
40 analysts cover URI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1037.13 (range: $715.00 — $1209.00), implying +9.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: URI trades at the 6360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that URI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 840.0% to approximately $1029. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.