MODEL VERDICT
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $93.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $93.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $93.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $90.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $91.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $93.15 | +0.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $89.21 | -4.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $110.92 | +19.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $80.37 | -13.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $113.24 | +21.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $94.76 | +1.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $128.68 | +38.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $112.54 | +20.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $105.11 | +12.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $80.26 | -13.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $99.90 | +7.3% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $79 | $89 | $98 | $107 | $116 |
| Conservative (7%) | $81 | $91 | $100 | $110 | $119 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $84 | $94 | $103 | $113 | $123 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.94 | 29.51 | 22.48 | 64.50 | 15.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.22 | 20.76 | 16.25 | 30.83 | 5.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.77 | 14.21 | 11.53 | 36.79 | 8.71 |
| P/FCF | 24.57 | 18.36 | 13.66 | 54.05 | 14.39 |
| P/FFO | 17.39 | 14.46 | 12.07 | 37.39 | 9.04 |
| P/AFFO | 169.50 | 23.80 | 18.85 | 1046.89 | 386.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.56 | 2.39 | 1.71 | 4.02 | 0.93 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates USFD's fair value at $99.90 vs the current price of $93.09, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $99.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $81.59 (P10) to $115.61 (P90), with a median of $98.34.
USFD's current P/E of 31.7x compares to the industry median of 37.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -16.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
25 analysts cover USFD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $108.33 (range: $94.00 — $117.00), implying +16.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that USFD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3670.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.