MODEL VERDICT
Universal Technical Institute, Inc. (UTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $36.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $35.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $12.79 | -65.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $26.30 | -28.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $19.95 | -45.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $16.80 | -54.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $25.00 | -32.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $17.30 | -53.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $257.29 | +597.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $21.54 | -41.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $29.21 | -20.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $19.87 | -46.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $16.84 | -54.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.15 | -10.2% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (34%) | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
| Conservative (55%) | $47 | $52 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Base Case (84.1%) | $56 | $62 | $69 | $75 | $81 |
| Bull Case (114%) | $65 | $72 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.39 | 40.14 | 17.68 | 120.97 | 42.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.96 | 20.91 | 16.63 | 22.70 | 2.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.53 | 9.37 | 6.71 | 18.06 | 4.03 |
| P/FCF | 42.55 | 23.74 | 12.82 | 109.90 | 45.24 |
| P/FFO | 9.77 | 7.42 | 3.87 | 20.81 | 6.21 |
| P/TBV | 2.77 | 1.85 | 1.16 | 6.12 | 2.03 |
| P/AFFO | 81.11 | 18.98 | 5.38 | 296.48 | 122.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.37 | 1.72 | 1.05 | 5.02 | 1.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.97 | 0.71 | 0.54 | 1.78 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UTI's fair value at $33.15 vs the current price of $36.89, implying -10.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.39 (P10) to $30.55 (P90), with a median of $24.17.
UTI's current P/E of 32.6x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +84.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover UTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.00 (range: $49.00 — $49.00), implying +32.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.3% is 3.9 percentage points above the 6-year average (2.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$24. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UTI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3570.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.