MODEL VERDICT
Visa Inc. (V)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $328.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $309.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $317.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $315.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $304.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $197.00 | -39.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $43.88 | -86.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $230.90 | -29.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $195.86 | -40.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $112.91 | -65.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $202.79 | -38.2% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $282 | $315 | $347 | $380 | $412 |
| Conservative (10%) | $293 | $326 | $360 | $394 | $428 |
| Base Case (15.8%) | $307 | $343 | $378 | $413 | $449 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $322 | $359 | $396 | $433 | $471 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.22 | 34.38 | 29.68 | 44.73 | 5.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.94 | 28.02 | 24.13 | 34.57 | 3.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.39 | 27.54 | 22.90 | 33.31 | 3.28 |
| P/FCF | 33.84 | 32.65 | 24.82 | 50.11 | 8.10 |
| P/FFO | 33.23 | 32.40 | 28.06 | 41.80 | 4.60 |
| P/AFFO | 35.38 | 34.83 | 29.89 | 44.62 | 4.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.20 | 13.43 | 12.31 | 18.19 | 2.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.19 | 17.85 | 15.14 | 22.26 | 2.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates V's fair value at $202.79 vs the current price of $328.03, implying -38.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $202.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.55 (P10) to $246.30 (P90), with a median of $208.35.
V's current P/E of 32.2x compares to the industry median of 19.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +66.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
61 analysts cover V with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $362.45 (range: $160.00 — $415.00), implying +10.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (52), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that V's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (51.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1310.0% to approximately $371. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.