MODEL VERDICT
Visa Inc. (V) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $320.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $320.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $314.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $328.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $349.77 | Below threshold | -6.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $114.06 | -64.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $26.32 | -91.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $66.11 | -79.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $119.29 | -62.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $107.44 | -66.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158.54 | -50.5% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 28× | 31× (Current) | 34× | 37× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $271 | $304 | $336 | $369 | $401 |
| Conservative (10%) | $281 | $315 | $349 | $383 | $416 |
| Base Case (15.8%) | $295 | $331 | $366 | $402 | $437 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $310 | $347 | $384 | $421 | $458 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.22 | 34.38 | 29.68 | 44.73 | 5.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.40 | 28.27 | 24.13 | 34.57 | 3.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.84 | 27.83 | 22.90 | 33.31 | 3.51 |
| P/FCF | 34.37 | 34.30 | 24.82 | 50.11 | 8.07 |
| P/FFO | 33.76 | 33.52 | 28.06 | 41.80 | 4.70 |
| P/AFFO | 35.96 | 35.64 | 29.89 | 44.62 | 5.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.50 | 13.43 | 12.31 | 20.30 | 2.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.48 | 18.58 | 15.14 | 22.26 | 2.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates V's fair value at $158.54 vs the current price of $320.14, implying -50.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.99 (P10) to $186.62 (P90), with a median of $164.71.
V's current P/E of 31.4x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +180.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
60 analysts cover V with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $377.83 (range: $160.00 — $425.00), implying +18.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (52), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that V's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (52.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1770.0% to approximately $377. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.