MODEL VERDICT
Visteon Corporation (VC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $110.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $113.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $98.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $93.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $94.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $78.97 | -28.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $124.93 | +12.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $113.44 | +2.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $126.74 | +14.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $146.71 | +32.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $168.26 | +51.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $165.96 | +49.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $131.60 | +18.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $112.25 | +1.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $125.58 | +13.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.39 | +39.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $83 | $98 | $114 | $129 | $144 |
| Conservative (7%) | $85 | $101 | $116 | $132 | $147 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $88 | $104 | $120 | $136 | $152 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $91 | $107 | $124 | $140 | $157 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.60 | 21.57 | 7.33 | 77.18 | 26.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.12 | 16.51 | 7.00 | 35.19 | 10.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.63 | 12.33 | 5.45 | 22.62 | 5.56 |
| P/FCF | 33.45 | 34.21 | 8.54 | 59.56 | 22.35 |
| P/FFO | 20.83 | 14.36 | 6.04 | 72.96 | 23.64 |
| P/TBV | 4.81 | 5.22 | 1.84 | 9.14 | 2.57 |
| P/AFFO | 30.84 | 19.76 | 7.67 | 87.21 | 29.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.94 | 4.10 | 1.59 | 6.87 | 1.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.64 | 1.37 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VC's fair value at $154.39 vs the current price of $110.85, implying +39.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $124.23 (P10) to $181.48 (P90), with a median of $151.48.
VC's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -2.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.6x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover VC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $121.00 (range: $115.00 — $135.00), implying +9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8300.0% to approximately $203. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.