MODEL VERDICT
Vericel Corporation (VCEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $35.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $35.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 53 analyst estimates | $9.91 | -72.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $0.64 | -98.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $5.74 | -83.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $13.77 | -61.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $3.04 | -91.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $14.48 | -59.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $19.90 | -44.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $44.14 | +24.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $44.48 | +25.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $5.08 | -85.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $11.00 | -69.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.70 | -10.9% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 93× | 102× | 111× (Current) | 120× | 129× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Conservative (26%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
| Base Case (39.5%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (53%) | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 298.88 | 274.55 | 112.53 | 509.57 | 199.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 418.08 | 311.20 | 285.55 | 657.50 | 207.74 |
| P/FCF | 112.12 | 97.69 | 36.12 | 217.32 | 66.76 |
| P/FFO | 462.81 | 251.82 | 178.85 | 1168.73 | 472.37 |
| P/TBV | 8.32 | 7.74 | 5.37 | 10.87 | 2.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.21 | 7.50 | 5.29 | 10.87 | 2.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.27 | 8.58 | 6.52 | 11.96 | 2.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates VCEL's fair value at $31.70 vs the current price of $35.57, implying -10.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.46 (P10) to $40.60 (P90), with a median of $29.62.
VCEL's current P/E of 111.2x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +519.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 298.9x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover VCEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.00 (range: $42.00 — $46.00), implying +23.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VCEL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.