MODEL VERDICT
Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $171.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $161.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $168.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $167.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $151.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $194.26 | +13.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $119.92 | -30.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $146.24 | -14.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $157.88 | -8.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $126.11 | -26.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $165.25 | -3.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $122.21 | -28.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $111.23 | -35.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $106.36 | -38.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $147.17 | -14.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $158.42 | -7.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $222.20 | +29.5% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $152 | $169 | $187 | $204 | $222 |
| Conservative (12%) | $158 | $176 | $195 | $213 | $231 |
| Base Case (18.2%) | $167 | $186 | $206 | $225 | $244 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $176 | $196 | $217 | $237 | $257 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.08 | 64.17 | 31.54 | 143.29 | 37.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 76.03 | 66.32 | 29.83 | 149.10 | 40.43 |
| EV/EBITDA | 71.42 | 62.36 | 29.83 | 139.42 | 37.20 |
| P/FCF | 49.17 | 38.83 | 20.25 | 99.24 | 27.82 |
| P/FFO | 70.49 | 60.51 | 30.26 | 134.27 | 35.08 |
| P/TBV | 14.81 | 9.79 | 4.25 | 39.45 | 12.56 |
| P/AFFO | 72.32 | 62.13 | 31.22 | 136.10 | 35.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.30 | 8.41 | 3.97 | 25.87 | 7.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.95 | 14.51 | 8.97 | 39.03 | 10.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VEEV's fair value at $222.20 vs the current price of $171.60, implying +29.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $222.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $189.17 (P10) to $272.48 (P90), with a median of $229.99.
VEEV's current P/E of 31.5x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +17.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 75.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
42 analysts cover VEEV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $280.10 (range: $205.00 — $333.00), implying +63.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (29), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.4% is 3.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.1%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$360. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VEEV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10980.0% to approximately $360. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.