MODEL VERDICT
Venture Global, Inc. (VG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $12.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $11.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $11.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $12.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $12.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $25.98 | +104.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $28.18 | +121.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $17.16 | +34.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $35.05 | +175.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $25.42 | +99.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $17.34 | +36.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $16.75 | +31.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.05 | +143.9% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates VG's fair value at $31.05 vs the current price of $12.73, implying +143.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.79 (P10) to $29.48 (P90), with a median of $25.12.
VG's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -25.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
31 analysts cover VG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.61 (range: $8.00 — $17.50), implying -0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (54.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19260.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.