MODEL VERDICT
Vista Gold Corp. (VGZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.41 | CURRENT | -12.9% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.80 | Pending | -27.1% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.71 | Pending | -19.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.73 | Pending | -23.4% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.93 | Pending | -31.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 7.91 | 5.83 | 3.81 | 16.32 | 4.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.91 | 5.83 | 3.81 | 16.32 | 4.34 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for VGZ.
Fair value could not be computed for VGZ due to insufficient comparable data.
VGZ's current P/E of -37.6x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -264.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover VGZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.50 (range: $4.50 — $4.50), implying +100.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VGZ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.