MODEL VERDICT
Vicor Corporation (VICR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $268.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $273.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $218.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $194.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $185.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $157.02 | -41.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $100.66 | -62.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $218.52 | -18.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $138.02 | -48.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $70.99 | -73.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $158.75 | -40.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $398.32 | +48.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $108.17 | -59.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $91.35 | -66.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $180.94 | -32.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $106.90 | -60.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.03 | -14.3% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 87× | 95× | 103× (Current) | 111× | 119× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $268 | $292 | $317 | $342 | $366 |
| Conservative (29%) | $293 | $320 | $347 | $374 | $401 |
| Base Case (44.8%) | $329 | $359 | $389 | $420 | $450 |
| Bull Case (61%) | $364 | $398 | $431 | $465 | $498 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 140.33 | 100.78 | 37.76 | 345.14 | 110.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 101.80 | 99.50 | 34.82 | 223.89 | 64.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 80.85 | 78.70 | 26.07 | 136.80 | 35.88 |
| P/FCF | 306.20 | 140.16 | 41.30 | 801.94 | 338.41 |
| P/FFO | 73.79 | 79.70 | 28.55 | 139.67 | 37.31 |
| P/TBV | 7.74 | 6.92 | 3.74 | 13.48 | 3.85 |
| P/AFFO | 2558.99 | 220.29 | 41.37 | 12925.02 | 5127.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.73 | 6.92 | 3.74 | 13.47 | 3.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.45 | 7.40 | 4.99 | 15.89 | 4.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VICR's fair value at $230.03 vs the current price of $268.36, implying -14.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $154.74 (P10) to $368.25 (P90), with a median of $244.13.
VICR's current P/E of 102.8x compares to the industry median of 83.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +22.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 140.3x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
7 analysts cover VICR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $245.00 (range: $245.00 — $245.00), implying -8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 26.2% is 15.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.1%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$155. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VICR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4240.0% to approximately $155. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.