MODEL VERDICT
Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $48.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $48.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $50.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $50.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $48.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $150.65 | +213.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $88.10 | +83.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $36.05 | -25.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $75.85 | +57.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $150.64 | +213.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $103.95 | +116.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.40 | +75.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $37 | $47 | $58 | $68 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $38 | $48 | $59 | $70 |
| Base Case (-0.1%) | $26 | $36 | $46 | $56 | $67 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $26 | $36 | $46 | $56 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.90 | 7.87 | 4.88 | 14.27 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.07 | 6.27 | 3.52 | 32.86 | 10.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.53 | 5.56 | 3.23 | 12.42 | 3.12 |
| P/FCF | 5.45 | 3.14 | 2.19 | 16.42 | 4.98 |
| P/FFO | 8.32 | 5.56 | 3.90 | 23.46 | 6.81 |
| P/TBV | 12.36 | 11.77 | 4.25 | 23.17 | 6.83 |
| P/AFFO | 9.32 | 5.79 | 4.04 | 26.66 | 7.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.29 | 2.11 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates VIRT's fair value at $84.40 vs the current price of $48.12, implying +75.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.31 (P10) to $93.20 (P90), with a median of $84.10.
VIRT's current P/E of 9.4x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -68.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover VIRT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $48.00 (range: $39.00 — $54.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VIRT trades at the 1890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VIRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2670.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.