MODEL VERDICT
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $246.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $235.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $223.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $235.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $238.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $289.52 | +17.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $306.36 | +24.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $167.75 | -32.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $379.47 | +53.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $248.07 | +0.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $395.70 | +60.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $376.65 | +52.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $293.38 | +18.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $167.37 | -32.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $362.87 | +47.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $270.39 | +9.5% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $213 | $236 | $260 | $283 | $307 |
| Conservative (7%) | $218 | $242 | $266 | $290 | $314 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $225 | $250 | $275 | $300 | $325 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $232 | $258 | $284 | $309 | $335 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.75 | 15.15 | 4.37 | 33.09 | 10.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.05 | 11.51 | 3.66 | 19.37 | 6.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.06 | 7.53 | 3.20 | 46.06 | 15.15 |
| P/FCF | 6.85 | 6.83 | 4.61 | 10.00 | 2.06 |
| P/FFO | 9.45 | 8.27 | 3.59 | 24.89 | 7.18 |
| P/TBV | 1.68 | 1.63 | 1.20 | 2.12 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 10.05 | 9.60 | 4.08 | 18.31 | 5.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.17 | 2.12 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VLO's fair value at $270.39 vs the current price of $246.87, implying +9.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $270.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $228.29 (P10) to $330.47 (P90), with a median of $270.33.
VLO's current P/E of 32.6x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +47.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover VLO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $214.67 (range: $178.00 — $263.00), implying -13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VLO trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VLO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4480.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.