MODEL VERDICT
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $297.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $292.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $291.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $291.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $295.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $211.99 | -28.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $239.40 | -19.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $196.94 | -33.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $259.95 | -12.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $242.38 | -18.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $243.16 | -18.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $100.49 | -66.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $250.80 | -15.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $283.63 | -4.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $196.68 | -33.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $259.99 | -12.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $242.46 | -18.4% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $265 | $291 | $316 | $342 | $367 |
| Conservative (9%) | $273 | $300 | $326 | $352 | $379 |
| Base Case (13.1%) | $285 | $312 | $340 | $367 | $395 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $296 | $325 | $354 | $382 | $411 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.01 | 35.13 | 31.10 | 41.35 | 3.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.62 | 25.29 | 23.42 | 31.28 | 3.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.57 | 18.20 | 16.65 | 21.91 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 39.19 | 42.47 | 27.91 | 49.43 | 8.10 |
| P/FFO | 21.06 | 20.36 | 19.36 | 24.73 | 1.88 |
| P/TBV | 14.53 | 12.97 | 11.41 | 24.70 | 4.68 |
| P/AFFO | 37.74 | 36.98 | 31.58 | 45.73 | 5.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.85 | 4.04 | 3.28 | 4.40 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.20 | 4.07 | 3.20 | 4.99 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VMC's fair value at $242.46 vs the current price of $297.32, implying -18.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $242.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $233.12 (P10) to $268.73 (P90), with a median of $250.78.
VMC's current P/E of 36.6x compares to the industry median of 24.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +51.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover VMC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $327.00 (range: $298.00 — $360.00), implying +10.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VMC trades at the 9290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VMC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2920.0% to approximately $384. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.