Vulcan Materials Company (VMC)
Valuation Overview•Is Vulcan Materials Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 64/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside with steady expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
VMC demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with highly explosive earnings growth (23.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 20.6% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | +6.9% | +2.7% | +10.3% | +8.8% | |
| EBITDA | $465.9M | — | +15.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $165.5M | +18.5% | +23.4% | — | +17.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.26 | +18.5% | +23.5% | +13.1% | +17.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $64.6M | +40.8% | +28.5% | +9.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 27.6% | 26.4% | 25.1% | 25.5% |
| Operating Margin | 20.6% | 18.9% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| Net Margin | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.1% |
| FCF Margin | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.10 | $1.35 | +22.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.11 | $1.70 | -19.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.73 | $2.84 | +4.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.53 | $2.45 | -3.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.76 | $1.00 | +30.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.79 | $2.17 | +21.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.30 | $2.22 | -3.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.48 | $2.35 | -5.2% |
Total return is +18.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -6.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +3.8% | -5.5% | — |
| 1Y | +18.1% | -6.9% | +0.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +13.9% | -6.6% | +2.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.5% | +0.4% | +5.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.7% | -3.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) valuation, health, and returns.
Vulcan Materials Company is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -36.8% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $191.33)
Vulcan Materials Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $191.33 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $230.26 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $322.60 (implying +6.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Vulcan Materials Company displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 64/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.8 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 8.8%.
Vulcan Materials Company pays a 0.7% dividend yield, covered by a 24% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.1% buyback yield.
Vulcan Materials Company's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +6.9% 1Y revenue growth and +18.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 36 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +6.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Vulcan Materials Company include: -22.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.87x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.