MODEL VERDICT
Viemed Healthcare, Inc. (VMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $9.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $9.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $10.24 | +2.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $20.87 | +109.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $9.52 | -4.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $3.97 | -60.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $11.43 | +14.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $4.14 | -58.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $12.71 | +27.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $12.77 | +28.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $9.65 | -3.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $3.69 | -63.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.44 | +24.8% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (-14.7%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (-20%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.41 | 28.18 | 9.46 | 50.40 | 12.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.78 | 18.68 | 10.96 | 30.99 | 7.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 | 8.32 | 6.06 | 16.56 | 3.56 |
| P/FCF | 69.57 | 43.22 | 14.25 | 248.30 | 82.23 |
| P/FFO | 10.59 | 9.87 | 6.97 | 16.51 | 3.42 |
| P/TBV | 3.65 | 3.64 | 2.24 | 5.64 | 1.04 |
| P/AFFO | 122.93 | 85.15 | 11.20 | 305.55 | 115.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.17 | 2.78 | 2.11 | 5.64 | 1.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.12 | 3.07 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VMD's fair value at $12.44 vs the current price of $9.97, implying +24.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.41 (P10) to $14.11 (P90), with a median of $11.53.
VMD's current P/E of 26.9x compares to the industry median of 25.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +4.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover VMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6930.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.