MODEL VERDICT
Vishay Precision Group, Inc. (VPG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $60.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $60.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $53.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $50.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $49.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $21.29 | -64.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $44.82 | -25.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $26.10 | -56.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $43.27 | -28.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $38.00 | -36.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $51.40 | -14.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $71.89 | +19.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $63.32 | +5.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $26.09 | -56.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $33.98 | -43.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.35 | -49.6% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 67× | 74× | 81× (Current) | 88× | 95× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $72 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $57 | $63 | $68 | $74 |
| Base Case (-14.6%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (-20%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.94 | 20.86 | 14.70 | 39.85 | 9.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.27 | 14.46 | 9.69 | 20.05 | 4.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.51 | 8.88 | 7.23 | 12.11 | 1.84 |
| P/FCF | 28.31 | 29.49 | 15.13 | 45.06 | 10.01 |
| P/FFO | 13.16 | 12.22 | 10.29 | 18.41 | 2.69 |
| P/TBV | 2.24 | 2.22 | 1.35 | 2.84 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 195.19 | 20.29 | 17.56 | 1243.04 | 462.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.63 | 1.73 | 0.98 | 1.91 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.02 | 1.63 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VPG's fair value at $30.35 vs the current price of $60.22, implying -49.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.65 (P10) to $36.64 (P90), with a median of $32.61.
VPG's current P/E of 81.4x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +130.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover VPG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.00 (range: $44.00 — $54.00), implying -18.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VPG trades at the 7190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VPG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2640.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.