MODEL VERDICT
Veris Residential, Inc. (VRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $18.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $18.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $18.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $18.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $18.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $18.73 | -1.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 7 REIT peers | $19.92 | +5.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $8.27 | -56.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $7.86 | -58.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $30.44 | +60.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $21.92 | +15.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $16.56 | -12.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $21.59 | +13.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.96 | +5.3% | 100% | 84 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 73.73 | 55.62 | 17.64 | 156.61 | 62.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.96 | 33.89 | 21.20 | 53.22 | 10.11 |
| P/FCF | 33.05 | 35.08 | 27.71 | 36.35 | 4.66 |
| P/FFO | 23.52 | 16.93 | 9.43 | 52.00 | 17.51 |
| P/TBV | 1.01 | 1.10 | 0.56 | 1.37 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 1.06 | 0.54 | 1.36 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.58 | 6.09 | 3.60 | 6.52 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates VRE's fair value at $19.96 vs the current price of $18.96, implying +5.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.67 (P10) to $26.81 (P90), with a median of $21.56.
VRE's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -13.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
12 analysts cover VRE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying -26.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.