MODEL VERDICT
Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $328.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $323.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $307.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $301.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $295.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $185.46 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $157.93 | -51.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $139.19 | -57.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $177.64 | -45.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $175.95 | -46.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $180.44 | -45.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $140.62 | -57.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $141.58 | -56.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $137.86 | -58.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $173.27 | -47.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158.01 | -51.9% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 80× | 88× | 96× (Current) | 104× | 112× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $284 | $312 | $340 | $369 | $397 |
| Conservative (7%) | $291 | $320 | $349 | $378 | $407 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $300 | $330 | $360 | $390 | $420 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $310 | $341 | $372 | $403 | $433 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.52 | 60.48 | 40.36 | 88.76 | 22.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.34 | 31.00 | 22.57 | 50.20 | 11.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.83 | 17.73 | 10.92 | 29.45 | 7.11 |
| P/FCF | 56.24 | 37.68 | 24.22 | 134.16 | 41.24 |
| P/FFO | 30.16 | 25.49 | 13.63 | 56.79 | 15.37 |
| P/AFFO | 40.67 | 33.89 | 19.28 | 74.55 | 20.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.72 | 10.20 | 3.58 | 18.03 | 5.57 |
| Div Yield | 39.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 276.16 | 104.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.67 | 1.78 | 0.29 | 6.19 | 2.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VRT's fair value at $158.01 vs the current price of $328.31, implying -51.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $148.09 (P10) to $198.16 (P90), with a median of $172.71.
VRT's current P/E of 96.3x compares to the industry median of 40.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +135.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 62.5x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover VRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $327.82 (range: $277.00 — $356.00), implying -0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.4% is 10.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (7.7%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$114. (2) Multiple compression: VRT trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (62.5×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (7.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6520.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.