MODEL VERDICT
Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $65.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $61.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $62.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $59.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $56.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $176.08 | +170.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $159.29 | +144.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $111.59 | +71.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $137.18 | +110.7% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 16.85 | 15.70 | 5.55 | 33.67 | 8.76 |
| P/FFO | 11.87 | 6.99 | 1.41 | 36.96 | 12.38 |
| P/TBV | 2.46 | 2.01 | 0.75 | 5.92 | 1.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 0.92 | 0.24 | 2.20 | 0.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.16 | 1.14 | 0.25 | 1.95 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates VSAT's fair value at $137.18 vs the current price of $65.12, implying +110.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $137.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.08 (P10) to $267.30 (P90), with a median of $145.20.
VSAT's current P/E of -14.5x compares to the industry median of 35.8x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -140.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover VSAT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $57.67 (range: $48.00 — $74.00), implying -11.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VSAT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.