MODEL VERDICT
Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $52.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $52.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $54.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $49.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $50.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $27.45 | -47.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.11 | -44.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $25.35 | -51.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $33.89 | -35.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $8.94 | -82.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $15.11 | -71.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $59.00 | +12.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $58.92 | +12.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $24.05 | -54.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $33.05 | -36.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.12 | -48.2% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| Conservative (7%) | $48 | $52 | $56 | $61 | $65 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 | $67 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.94 | 13.87 | 7.74 | 20.30 | 6.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.20 | 14.83 | 8.21 | 18.94 | 5.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.01 | 7.84 | 6.09 | 10.27 | 1.81 |
| P/FCF | 11.91 | 12.27 | 7.33 | 15.76 | 3.62 |
| P/FFO | 5.84 | 5.30 | 4.83 | 7.94 | 1.42 |
| P/AFFO | 10.51 | 10.16 | 6.41 | 15.30 | 4.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.19 | 6.27 | 4.79 | 19.45 | 6.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.34 | 0.74 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates VSCO's fair value at $27.12 vs the current price of $52.36, implying -48.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.50 (P10) to $33.68 (P90), with a median of $28.91.
VSCO's current P/E of 25.7x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +106.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover VSCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.67 (range: $45.00 — $66.00), implying +6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VSCO trades at the 5620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VSCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4730.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.