MODEL VERDICT
Vestis Corporation (VSTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $9.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $9.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $9.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $9.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $8.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $5.31 | -45.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $7.41 | -23.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.75 | -92.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $12.17 | +25.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $14.50 | +49.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $0.74 | -92.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.05 | -37.7% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 29.35 | 21.17 | 19.58 | 47.29 | 15.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.24 | 11.24 | 10.03 | 12.46 | 1.21 |
| P/FCF | 57.62 | 15.43 | 5.11 | 152.33 | 82.18 |
| P/FFO | 9.62 | 8.55 | 7.90 | 12.42 | 2.44 |
| P/AFFO | 18.08 | 19.82 | 10.17 | 24.24 | 7.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 2.22 | 1.02 | 3.15 | 1.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates VSTS's fair value at $6.05 vs the current price of $9.71, implying -37.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.35 (P10) to $7.70 (P90), with a median of $5.83.
VSTS's current P/E of -31.3x compares to the industry median of 19.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -260.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover VSTS with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $5.90 (range: $5.30 — $6.50), implying -39.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VSTS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.