MODEL VERDICT
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $80.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $79.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $79.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $78.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $76.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $115.38 | +42.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $101.15 | +25.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $96.68 | +19.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $66.24 | -18.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $115.38 | +42.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $111.52 | +38.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $101.13 | +25.2% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $46 | $64 | $82 | $100 | $119 |
| Conservative (8%) | $47 | $66 | $85 | $103 | $122 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $49 | $68 | $88 | $107 | $127 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $51 | $71 | $91 | $111 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.53 | 11.78 | 6.14 | 12.42 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.61 | 10.01 | 6.43 | 14.85 | 2.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.99 | 10.01 | 6.09 | 13.59 | 2.27 |
| P/FCF | 7.01 | 8.61 | 3.05 | 9.36 | 3.45 |
| P/FFO | 9.76 | 10.60 | 5.66 | 11.72 | 2.25 |
| P/TBV | 2.01 | 1.86 | 1.59 | 3.06 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 10.68 | 11.41 | 6.47 | 12.64 | 2.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.36 | 1.16 | 2.24 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 2.16 | 1.68 | 5.55 | 1.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WAL's fair value at $101.13 vs the current price of $80.80, implying +25.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $101.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $96.27 (P10) to $111.30 (P90), with a median of $103.65.
WAL's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -30.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover WAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.83 (range: $79.00 — $96.00), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WAL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8310.0% to approximately $148. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.