MODEL VERDICT
Waters Corporation (WAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $307.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $309.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $327.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $326.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $320.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $311.59 | +1.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $271.85 | -11.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $355.52 | +15.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $295.05 | -3.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $358.14 | +16.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $301.97 | -1.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $128.84 | -58.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $229.17 | -25.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $242.25 | -21.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $353.27 | +15.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $291.52 | -5.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $325.59 | +6.0% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $273 | $295 | $317 | $339 | $360 |
| Conservative (5%) | $281 | $304 | $326 | $349 | $371 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $279 | $302 | $324 | $346 | $369 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $283 | $306 | $329 | $351 | $374 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.82 | 29.60 | 24.66 | 34.64 | 3.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.15 | 24.94 | 20.52 | 28.45 | 2.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.79 | 21.77 | 17.68 | 25.40 | 2.31 |
| P/FCF | 36.70 | 35.65 | 24.98 | 48.27 | 8.02 |
| P/FFO | 24.43 | 24.15 | 20.85 | 28.03 | 2.37 |
| P/AFFO | 30.99 | 31.57 | 25.48 | 35.22 | 3.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 34.79 | 28.97 | 9.34 | 66.52 | 25.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.93 | 6.62 | 6.05 | 8.30 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WAT's fair value at $325.59 vs the current price of $307.12, implying +6.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $325.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $277.59 (P10) to $354.11 (P90), with a median of $315.40.
WAT's current P/E of 28.7x compares to the industry median of 33.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -13.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
34 analysts cover WAT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $402.57 (range: $350.00 — $480.00), implying +31.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WAT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1940.0% to approximately $367. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.