MODEL VERDICT
WESCO International, Inc. (WCC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $354.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $316.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $319.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $305.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $303.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $432.33 | +21.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $441.00 | +24.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $415.42 | +17.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $12.22 | -96.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $428.58 | +20.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $1053.88 | +197.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $1098.96 | +209.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $1193.94 | +236.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $416.63 | +17.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $12.29 | -96.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $359.68 | +1.4% | 100% | 75 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (22%) | $365 | $397 | $428 | $460 | $492 |
| Conservative (35%) | $405 | $441 | $476 | $511 | $546 |
| Base Case (53.9%) | $462 | $502 | $542 | $582 | $623 |
| Bull Case (73%) | $519 | $564 | $609 | $654 | $699 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.14 | 13.87 | 8.17 | 51.99 | 14.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.51 | 11.25 | 8.36 | 24.56 | 5.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 | 10.05 | 7.40 | 18.19 | 3.56 |
| P/FCF | 181.11 | 18.50 | 7.51 | 552.50 | 260.86 |
| P/FFO | 10.91 | 10.16 | 6.31 | 16.47 | 3.43 |
| P/AFFO | 12.78 | 11.24 | 6.98 | 22.12 | 4.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.66 | 1.81 | 1.10 | 2.41 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WCC's fair value at $359.68 vs the current price of $354.59, implying +1.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $359.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $362.35 (P10) to $479.01 (P90), with a median of $419.23.
WCC's current P/E of 27.2x compares to the industry median of 31.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -14.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
33 analysts cover WCC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $360.14 (range: $307.00 — $415.00), implying +1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WCC trades at the 2140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WCC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2910.0% to approximately $458. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.