MODEL VERDICT
Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $46.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $33.08 | -35.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $51.77 | +1.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $21.83 | -57.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $32.27 | -37.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $31.87 | -37.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $45.68 | -10.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.31 | +43.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 28× | 31× (Current) | 34× | 37× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $42 | $47 | $52 | $57 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $59 | $64 |
| Base Case (-26.6%) | $30 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $45 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $26 | $29 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.39 | 18.51 | 11.87 | 36.68 | 11.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.81 | 19.96 | 13.34 | 40.30 | 10.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.45 | 10.71 | 7.32 | 13.13 | 2.42 |
| P/FCF | 9.89 | 5.12 | 1.64 | 27.69 | 11.98 |
| P/FFO | 7.96 | 6.89 | 5.72 | 10.92 | 2.07 |
| P/TBV | 17.18 | 14.18 | 2.73 | 34.64 | 16.17 |
| P/AFFO | 8.24 | 7.17 | 6.01 | 11.48 | 2.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.15 | 3.01 | 0.61 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.69 | 2.64 | 1.63 | 3.78 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WD's fair value at $73.31 vs the current price of $51.28, implying +43.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.71 (P10) to $121.91 (P90), with a median of $79.01.
WD's current P/E of 31.3x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +55.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover WD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $72.00 (range: $69.00 — $75.00), implying +40.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WD trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12830.0% to approximately $117. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.