MODEL VERDICT
Workday, Inc. (WDAY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $126.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $119.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $123.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $124.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $112.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $191.89 | +51.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $72.54 | -42.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $70.34 | -44.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $200.11 | +57.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $78.44 | -38.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $218.94 | +72.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $196.90 | +55.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $190.82 | +50.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $70.34 | -44.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $200.11 | +57.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $399.95 | +215.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $110 | $121 | $131 | $142 | $153 |
| Conservative (7%) | $113 | $124 | $135 | $146 | $157 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $116 | $128 | $139 | $150 | $162 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $120 | $132 | $143 | $155 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 400.82 | 79.83 | 49.21 | 1394.42 | 663.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 391.37 | 113.84 | 32.48 | 1305.32 | 611.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 400.71 | 169.45 | 23.91 | 1455.96 | 543.45 |
| P/FCF | 44.45 | 35.82 | 12.04 | 87.79 | 25.79 |
| P/FFO | 1204.59 | 67.86 | 32.16 | 5767.79 | 2551.11 |
| P/TBV | 45.54 | 29.07 | 11.18 | 159.64 | 52.42 |
| P/AFFO | 151.96 | 73.86 | 38.09 | 422.01 | 182.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.82 | 9.37 | 4.28 | 21.89 | 6.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.91 | 9.43 | 3.50 | 15.01 | 4.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WDAY's fair value at $399.95 vs the current price of $126.96, implying +215.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $399.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $243.18 (P10) to $819.51 (P90), with a median of $487.46.
WDAY's current P/E of 49.2x compares to the industry median of 27.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +80.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 400.8x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
80 analysts cover WDAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $197.90 (range: $125.00 — $298.00), implying +55.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (45), Hold (34), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WDAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1630.0% to approximately $148. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.