MODEL VERDICT
Western Digital Corporation (WDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $431.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $404.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $372.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $365.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $343.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $234.05 | -45.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $333.19 | -22.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $335.80 | -22.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $90.44 | -79.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $387.29 | -10.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $86.88 | -79.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $339.97 | -21.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $348.46 | -19.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $314.26 | -27.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $115.83 | -73.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $233.63 | -45.9% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 70× | 77× | 84× (Current) | 91× | 98× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $373 | $410 | $447 | $485 | $522 |
| Conservative (7%) | $382 | $420 | $458 | $496 | $534 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $394 | $434 | $473 | $513 | $552 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $407 | $447 | $488 | $529 | $569 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.06 | 18.52 | 5.02 | 33.65 | 14.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.55 | 43.59 | 5.18 | 115.78 | 43.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.96 | 11.10 | 3.86 | 127.05 | 45.76 |
| P/FCF | 32.62 | 17.73 | 9.75 | 70.46 | 25.80 |
| P/FFO | 12.00 | 9.48 | 3.04 | 26.75 | 9.03 |
| P/TBV | 30.96 | 14.86 | 2.29 | 71.48 | 33.33 |
| P/AFFO | 30.17 | 18.64 | 5.57 | 76.95 | 27.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.70 | 1.36 | 0.62 | 11.64 | 3.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.96 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 6.50 | 2.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WDC's fair value at $233.63 vs the current price of $431.52, implying -45.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $233.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $186.21 (P10) to $321.81 (P90), with a median of $247.70.
WDC's current P/E of 84.3x compares to the industry median of 65.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +28.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 3 years. Signal: Premium.
61 analysts cover WDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $407.54 (range: $250.00 — $660.00), implying -5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (44), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WDC trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WDC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.