MODEL VERDICT
WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $116.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $114.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $115.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $112.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $104.65 | Below threshold | +6.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $101.77 | -13.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $121.71 | +4.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $126.30 | +8.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $100.21 | -14.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $80.60 | -31.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $46.11 | -60.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $80.82 | -30.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $101.77 | -13.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $111.25 | -4.9% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $99 | $108 | $118 | $128 | $138 |
| Conservative (5%) | $101 | $112 | $122 | $132 | $142 |
| Base Case (5.0%) | $101 | $112 | $122 | $132 | $142 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $103 | $113 | $124 | $134 | $144 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.28 | 21.83 | 19.47 | 25.76 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.72 | 20.90 | 14.74 | 23.79 | 3.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.82 | 15.42 | 9.96 | 17.05 | 2.40 |
| P/FCF | 154.85 | 69.11 | 50.60 | 344.86 | 164.81 |
| P/FFO | 12.02 | 11.71 | 10.24 | 14.17 | 1.52 |
| P/TBV | 3.16 | 3.46 | 0.93 | 4.06 | 1.06 |
| P/AFFO | 233.44 | 252.40 | 136.58 | 292.37 | 67.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.32 | 2.55 | 0.85 | 2.85 | 0.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.52 | 3.53 | 2.99 | 4.02 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates WEC's fair value at $111.25 vs the current price of $116.96, implying -4.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $111.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $103.64 (P10) to $132.77 (P90), with a median of $117.06.
WEC's current P/E of 24.2x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
34 analysts cover WEC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $121.00 (range: $105.00 — $135.00), implying +3.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (20), Sell (3), Strong Sell (1).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WEC trades at the 6580th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WEC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 840.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.