MODEL VERDICT
The Wendy's Company (WEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $6.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $7.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $6.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $6.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $6.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $12.99 | +93.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $23.41 | +249.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $23.91 | +256.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $33.32 | +397.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $21.07 | +214.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $22.11 | +230.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $23.41 | +249.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $16.57 | +147.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $31.47 | +369.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $23.91 | +256.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $33.60 | +401.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.47 | +235.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.4%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $5 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.77 | 26.80 | 8.30 | 42.15 | 11.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.19 | 23.02 | 8.89 | 30.93 | 7.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.46 | 17.22 | 13.21 | 21.90 | 3.14 |
| P/FCF | 21.28 | 23.20 | 12.85 | 28.01 | 5.37 |
| P/FFO | 14.15 | 15.60 | 6.49 | 19.94 | 5.08 |
| P/AFFO | 19.03 | 21.46 | 7.37 | 27.52 | 7.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.58 | 10.49 | 5.90 | 13.30 | 2.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.41 | 2.40 | 1.49 | 3.06 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WEN's fair value at $22.47 vs the current price of $6.70, implying +235.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.46 (P10) to $24.80 (P90), with a median of $22.58.
WEN's current P/E of 7.1x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -72.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
51 analysts cover WEN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.73 (range: $6.00 — $10.00), implying +15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (34), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 81750.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.