MODEL VERDICT
Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $42.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $41.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $40.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $40.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $41.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $47.77 | +13.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $72.31 | +71.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $61.43 | +45.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $52.66 | +24.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $76.54 | +81.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $70.26 | +66.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $48.80 | +15.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $49.64 | +17.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $32.17 | -23.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $59.55 | +41.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $52.66 | +24.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.34 | +40.8% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $33 | $40 | $46 | $53 | $59 |
| Conservative (14%) | $35 | $41 | $48 | $55 | $62 |
| Base Case (20.8%) | $37 | $44 | $51 | $59 | $66 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $39 | $47 | $55 | $62 | $70 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.91 | 11.25 | 8.95 | 12.99 | 1.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.88 | 12.96 | 10.89 | 15.14 | 1.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.55 | 8.44 | 6.47 | 9.83 | 1.17 |
| P/FCF | 16.41 | 10.46 | 4.95 | 60.52 | 19.64 |
| P/FFO | 6.66 | 6.61 | 5.91 | 8.10 | 0.76 |
| P/TBV | 4.34 | 4.45 | 2.85 | 5.40 | 0.86 |
| P/AFFO | 10.43 | 10.35 | 7.95 | 13.17 | 2.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.22 | 3.42 | 2.08 | 4.35 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.33 | 3.27 | 2.17 | 4.08 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WES's fair value at $59.34 vs the current price of $42.16, implying +40.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.94 (P10) to $64.38 (P90), with a median of $56.05.
WES's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -31.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover WES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $39.00 — $42.00), implying -2.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WES trades at the 2780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 260.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.