MODEL VERDICT
Weatherford International plc (WFRD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $109.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $108.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $102.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $102.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $145.91 | +33.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $137.19 | +25.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $214.48 | +95.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $154.66 | +41.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $194.84 | +78.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $156.33 | +42.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $107.66 | -1.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $99.37 | -9.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $240.14 | +119.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $146.05 | +33.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $154.02 | +40.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $86 | $99 | $111 | $123 | $136 |
| Conservative (7%) | $88 | $101 | $114 | $126 | $139 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $91 | $104 | $117 | $130 | $144 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $94 | $108 | $121 | $135 | $148 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.63 | 13.20 | 0.54 | 141.44 | 58.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.78 | 9.09 | 0.91 | 14.84 | 5.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.33 | 6.48 | 4.87 | 7.27 | 0.90 |
| P/FCF | 11.29 | 11.25 | 7.50 | 16.90 | 3.39 |
| P/FFO | 6.89 | 8.14 | 0.48 | 9.78 | 3.85 |
| P/TBV | 18.13 | 4.81 | 1.25 | 81.47 | 31.30 |
| P/AFFO | 10.18 | 12.04 | 0.51 | 15.09 | 5.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.87 | 3.91 | 0.45 | 7.85 | 2.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 1.41 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WFRD's fair value at $154.02 vs the current price of $109.49, implying +40.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $154.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.58 (P10) to $179.17 (P90), with a median of $145.58.
WFRD's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -48.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover WFRD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $82.00 (range: $82.00 — $82.00), implying -25.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WFRD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17370.0% to approximately $300. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.