MODEL VERDICT
WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. (WHF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $5.50 | -15.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $12.63 | +93.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $12.81 | +96.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $1.82 | -72.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $5.51 | -15.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $10.17 | +55.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.11 | +24.2% | 100% | 86 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (-20.7%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.46 | 10.92 | 4.56 | 20.60 | 5.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.59 | 25.45 | 7.09 | 47.25 | 14.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.59 | 25.45 | 7.09 | 47.25 | 14.33 |
| P/FCF | 7.86 | 9.43 | 2.86 | 11.49 | 3.90 |
| P/FFO | 8.23 | 9.14 | 4.53 | 11.02 | 3.34 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.68 | 5.90 | 3.58 | 13.16 | 3.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WHF's fair value at $8.11 vs the current price of $6.53, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.59 (P10) to $10.66 (P90), with a median of $8.51.
WHF's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a +18.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
18 analysts cover WHF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +83.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WHF trades at the 5380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WHF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.