MODEL VERDICT
Westwood Holdings Group, Inc. (WHG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $6.12 | -65.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 52 industry peers | $45.88 | +158.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 48 bank peers | $28.60 | +61.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 26 industry peers | $45.29 | +155.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 42 industry peers | $6.13 | -65.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 40 analyst estimates | $146.89 | +727.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.66 | +55.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 63× | 68× (Current) | 73× | 78× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| Base Case (-18.0%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-24%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.70 | 13.77 | 10.74 | 55.81 | 21.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.90 | 23.66 | 7.51 | 32.36 | 9.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.63 | 15.03 | 6.47 | 28.93 | 9.05 |
| P/FCF | 6.44 | 6.99 | 1.69 | 9.53 | 2.98 |
| P/FFO | 14.95 | 11.07 | 6.63 | 29.37 | 9.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.15 | 2.32 | 0.41 |
| P/AFFO | 16.06 | 11.23 | 6.69 | 34.07 | 10.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.01 | 0.79 | 1.80 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.14 | 2.98 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WHG's fair value at $27.66 vs the current price of $17.76, implying +55.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.09 (P10) to $36.00 (P90), with a median of $28.39.
WHG's current P/E of 68.3x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +190.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.7x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for WHG.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WHG trades at the 9020th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WHG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.