MODEL VERDICT
Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $73.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $77.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $77.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $78.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $78.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $97.18 | +31.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $53.52 | -27.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $118.64 | +60.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $91.60 | +23.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $52.79 | -28.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $122.73 | +65.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $74.47 | +0.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $69.44 | -6.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $118.56 | +60.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $91.46 | +23.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.10 | +73.2% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $62 | $69 | $76 | $83 | $91 |
| Conservative (7%) | $63 | $71 | $78 | $85 | $93 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $65 | $73 | $81 | $88 | $96 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $67 | $75 | $83 | $91 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.55 | 28.29 | 24.11 | 77.51 | 25.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.42 | 25.47 | 15.97 | 54.77 | 18.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.73 | 24.92 | 9.95 | 237.88 | 81.50 |
| P/FCF | 77.27 | 16.91 | 8.52 | 336.29 | 129.38 |
| P/FFO | 36.76 | 21.93 | 10.69 | 115.79 | 37.15 |
| P/TBV | 14.33 | 12.94 | 7.96 | 23.48 | 7.48 |
| P/AFFO | 400.61 | 25.26 | 16.78 | 1914.92 | 846.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.54 | 2.32 | 1.28 | 5.12 | 1.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.10 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 2.29 | 0.60 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WLDN's fair value at $128.10 vs the current price of $73.98, implying +73.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.20 (P10) to $199.32 (P90), with a median of $134.65.
WLDN's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -37.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover WLDN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.50 (range: $110.00 — $125.00), implying +58.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.7% is 4.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (1.7%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$31. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WLDN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5810.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.