MODEL VERDICT
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $41.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $40.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $93.37 | +128.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $76.85 | +87.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $35.99 | -12.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $38.19 | -6.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $67.02 | +63.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $36.55 | -10.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $51.64 | +26.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $53.40 | +30.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $35.08 | -14.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $37.23 | -9.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.82 | +41.3% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.23 | 20.02 | 15.29 | 102.39 | 37.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.20 | 13.94 | 12.76 | 33.83 | 8.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.76 | 9.38 | 6.74 | 26.56 | 6.94 |
| P/FCF | 14.26 | 12.96 | 10.43 | 22.68 | 4.38 |
| P/FFO | 10.51 | 8.07 | 6.15 | 24.43 | 6.90 |
| P/AFFO | 38.27 | 11.59 | 9.18 | 175.70 | 67.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.47 | 2.38 | 1.71 | 3.25 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.28 | 0.89 | 1.67 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WLY's fair value at $57.82 vs the current price of $40.93, implying +41.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.13 (P10) to $71.43 (P90), with a median of $61.82.
WLY's current P/E of 26.8x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +13.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 5 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
3 analysts cover WLY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WLY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6900.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.