MODEL VERDICT
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $75.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $72.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $71.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $70.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $72.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $34.13 | -54.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $37.85 | -49.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $29.75 | -60.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $27.38 | -63.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $21.45 | -71.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $13.94 | -81.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $18.98 | -74.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $30.78 | -59.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $31.05 | -58.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $29.75 | -60.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $27.38 | -63.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.35 | -41.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $71 | $77 | $83 | $89 | $95 |
| Conservative (14%) | $74 | $81 | $87 | $93 | $99 |
| Base Case (21.1%) | $79 | $86 | $93 | $99 | $106 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.28 | 25.37 | 13.40 | 117.94 | 39.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.70 | 21.43 | 11.86 | 32.14 | 7.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.60 | 12.53 | 10.48 | 17.53 | 2.65 |
| P/FCF | 116.09 | 15.44 | 10.97 | 715.62 | 264.43 |
| P/FFO | 11.41 | 11.23 | 8.11 | 14.89 | 2.44 |
| P/TBV | 4.96 | 4.74 | 2.61 | 8.67 | 2.08 |
| P/AFFO | 32.92 | 29.87 | 15.02 | 69.39 | 20.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.46 | 2.25 | 1.34 | 4.46 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.71 | 3.51 | 2.47 | 6.30 | 1.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WMB's fair value at $44.35 vs the current price of $75.54, implying -41.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.76 (P10) to $97.10 (P90), with a median of $49.12.
WMB's current P/E of 41.5x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +153.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.3x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover WMB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $79.00 (range: $66.00 — $89.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WMB trades at the 9170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (39.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WMB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (31.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4430.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.