MODEL VERDICT
Walmart Inc. (WMT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $127.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $122.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $133.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $126.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $114.53 | Below threshold | +12.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $80.91 | -36.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $76.79 | -40.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $84.16 | -34.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $191.09 | +49.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $70.43 | -45.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $223.37 | +74.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $82.45 | -35.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $105.41 | -17.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $86.13 | -32.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $82.85 | -35.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $172.39 | +34.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $111.69 | -12.7% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $111 | $123 | $134 | $145 | $157 |
| Conservative (7%) | $114 | $126 | $137 | $149 | $161 |
| Base Case (11.0%) | $118 | $130 | $142 | $155 | $167 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $122 | $135 | $147 | $160 | $173 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.73 | 37.01 | 27.77 | 47.30 | 8.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.92 | 25.14 | 19.99 | 36.30 | 6.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.61 | 15.34 | 12.03 | 24.59 | 4.80 |
| P/FCF | 37.22 | 35.91 | 15.96 | 71.11 | 18.10 |
| P/FFO | 21.58 | 19.05 | 15.98 | 28.44 | 5.79 |
| P/TBV | 9.78 | 8.19 | 6.32 | 14.42 | 3.22 |
| P/AFFO | 69.63 | 74.73 | 27.27 | 108.57 | 38.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.69 | 5.13 | 4.33 | 10.27 | 2.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.97 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 1.44 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WMT's fair value at $111.69 vs the current price of $127.95, implying -12.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $111.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.57 (P10) to $127.76 (P90), with a median of $113.33.
WMT's current P/E of 46.9x compares to the industry median of 30.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +52.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
64 analysts cover WMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $136.31 (range: $120.00 — $150.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (46), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.3% is 0.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (2.6%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$81. (2) Multiple compression: WMT trades at the 5560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3670.0% to approximately $81. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.