MODEL VERDICT
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $131.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $129.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $127.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $124.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $126.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $46.93 | -64.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $58.24 | -55.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $58.28 | -55.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $99.74 | -24.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $65.80 | -50.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $126.15 | -4.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $42.39 | -67.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $86.17 | -34.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $76.42 | -41.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $58.28 | -55.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $107.33 | -18.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $81.73 | -37.9% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $114 | $125 | $137 | $148 | $160 |
| Conservative (7%) | $117 | $129 | $140 | $152 | $164 |
| Base Case (11.0%) | $121 | $133 | $145 | $158 | $170 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $125 | $138 | $151 | $163 | $176 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.92 | 37.01 | 27.77 | 48.21 | 9.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.06 | 25.14 | 19.99 | 37.29 | 6.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.71 | 15.34 | 12.03 | 25.26 | 4.96 |
| P/FCF | 37.32 | 35.91 | 15.96 | 71.11 | 18.02 |
| P/FFO | 21.70 | 19.05 | 15.98 | 29.25 | 5.96 |
| P/TBV | 9.84 | 8.19 | 6.32 | 14.83 | 3.33 |
| P/AFFO | 70.07 | 74.73 | 27.27 | 111.67 | 39.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.73 | 5.13 | 4.33 | 10.57 | 2.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 1.48 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WMT's fair value at $81.73 vs the current price of $131.60, implying -37.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $81.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.25 (P10) to $96.90 (P90), with a median of $84.37.
WMT's current P/E of 48.2x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +125.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
64 analysts cover WMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.04 (range: $120.00 — $150.00), implying +4.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (46), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 3.3% is 0.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (2.6%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$81. (2) Multiple compression: WMT trades at the 7000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3820.0% to approximately $81. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.